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Indonesia Morning Market - 5 August 2020

A. INDONESIA MORNING MARKET REVIEW
Wednesday (05/08/2020).

*Focus: Indonesia GDP Growth Rate*
*QoQ: Cons -3.49% (Prev -2.41%)*
*YoY: Cons -4.61% (Prev +2.97%)*

This Wednesday at 11:00 all the good eyes of investors in Stock, Bond and Money Market are focused on the release of Indonesian GDP data for the 2/2020 quarter which is expected to contract or fall -4.61% YoY (Consensus) as a logical consequence of implementing the PSBB policy which * if it turns out real data GDP fell smaller than the consensus, JCI has a chance to strengthen quite large *, which previously had received positive sentiment from the increase in EIDO by + 2.52% and the DJIA rise on the 3rd day by + 0.62% driven by positive developments due to the release of the newly known Stimulus Package * US $ 1,200 Stimulus Check * and a rise in technology-based shares amid the achievement of the highest number of victims who were infected and killed by Corvid19, where * on Tuesday there were +1,922 people infected by Corvid * so far the Corvid19 victims have reached 115,056 people (success far surpassed China, allegedly as the initial state of the Corona Virus) with * an additional death toll on Tuesday of + 86 people * so far the death toll has reached 5,388 people, leading to 6,000 people killed in the near future. (Fatality Rate of 4.68%)*.

Furthermore, the strengthening of most commodity prices such as: Oil + 1.89%, Gold + 2.12%, Nickel + 0.29% and CPO + 1.76% have the potential to push up stocks below those commodities. Knowing that there are quite a lot of positive factors driving the JCI * so that there is a chance to strengthen * This Wednesday amid valuations that there are still quite a lot of interesting stocks to buy, we recommend being very selective if investors want to do BUY or Swing Trade so they can focus on stocks from the Cigarettes, Banks, Consumers, Chicken Feed, Telko Infrastructure, Gold Metals and CPO in trade this Wednesday.

 

There is government stimulus, OJK predicts credit will grow 3% -4% until the end of the year.

Bank lending has increased since July 2020 after the government sowed a lot of stimulus through low-cost fund placements at Bank Himbara and BPD and working capital credit guarantees for the MSME segment.

 

 

B. INDONESIA CORPORATE NEWS

1. PT Adhi Karya (ADHI).

The company posted revenue of Rp 5.53 trillion in semester 1/2020 or a slight increase of 1.84% compared to the realization of revenue in the first quarter of 2012 amounting to Rp 5.43 trillion. The company`s operating revenues include construction services of Rp 4.48 trillion, EPC revenue of Rp 237.72 billion, property / real estate income of Rp 412.21 billion and infrastructure investment of Rp 396.45 billion. Furthermore, as of the end of June 2020, the company posted a net profit of Rp 11.27 billion, or * a sharp drop of -94.76% * compared to net profit in the same period in 2019 at Rp 215 billion.

 

2. PT Tjiwi Kimia Paper Factory (TKIM)

Net profit attributable to owners of the parent entity as of June 30, 2020 was USD89.60 million, down 14.42% from the net profit of USD104.72 million in the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the company posted a net sale of USD450.07 million for the period of 30 June 2020, or down 20.01% from net sales of USD 577.71 million in the same period in 2019.

 

3. PT Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper (INKP)

Net profit attributable to owners of the parent entity as of June 30, 2020 was recorded by the company amounting to USD203.23 million, up 39.04% of net profit of USD146.82 million for the same period in 2019. Furthermore, the company posted a net sale of USD1.48 billion to period 30 June 2020, or down 5.73% of net sales of USD1.57 billion in the same period in 2019.

 

4. PT Surya Citra Media (SCMA)

The company recorded profit attributable to owners of the parent entity until 30 June 2020, down -23.27% to Rp600.19 billion from profit of Rp782.48 billion in the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the company recorded a net income of Rp2.36 trillion until 30 June 2020, or down -14.64% of net sales of Rp2.76 trillion in the same period in 2019.

 

5. PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT)

The company posted revenue of Rp 38.08 trillion in the first half of 2020, an increase of 5.31% from the acquisition in the first semester of Rp. 36.16 trillion. The breakdown, When detailed, the company`s revenue came from food recorded at Rp 24.73 trillion, not food at Rp 13.34 trillion and services at Rp 12.88 billion. The net income from the franchise (franchise) was 6.87 trillion, equivalent to 18.04% of net income. While net income from related parties was recorded at Rp 22.76 billion, equivalent to 0.06% of net income. Meanwhile, until the end of semester 1/2020 profit for the current period attributable to the parent company was recorded at Rp 493.26 billion or an increase of + 23.2% from Rp 400.36 billion in 1/2019 semester.

 

6. PT Indonesia Vehicle Terminal (IPCC)

Until the first half of 2020, the company posted revenue of IDR 175.68 billion, down 23.18% compared to the same period last year of IDR 228.70 billion. The decrease was due to lower revenue from the terminal services segment which recorded a 22.56% decline to Rp 164.73 billion from Rp 212.72 billion in the first semester of 2019. Because terminal services are the largest contributor, reaching 93.20% of the company`s total revenue. Meanwhile, using a capex budget of Rp 339 billion which has been allocated for land rental and working capital of the company. The remaining Rp 130 billion we are prepared to spend in the future.

 

 

C. MARKET STATISTICS

*DJIA +164.07 +0.62% 26828*
*NASDAQ +38.37 +0.35% 10941*
*GOLD +42.3 +2.11% 2035.30*
*OIL +0.77 +1.89% 41.54*
COAL (Sep/Newcastle) -0.10 -0.18% 54.20
*NICKEL +40 +0.29% 13995*
TIN -85 -0.48% 17772.50*
*CPO (Sep`20) +49 +1.76% 2839!!*
*EIDO +0.46 +2.52% 18.68*
US 10yr -0.0480 -8.53% 0.5150
INDO 10yr +0.0061 +0.01% 7.0504
INDO CDS (5yr) -1.03 -0.898% 113.594
*TLK 40 (2925) vs 2950 (TLKM)*
IDR (Spot) 14,625
IDR (Bloomberg, 05/08/20/Fut, 04.50) 14,625

*IDX Range : 5,026 - 5,110*
*USD/IDR Range: 14,550 - 14,680*

 

 

D. STOCK WATCHLIST

PTBA, GGRM, BBRI, ICBP, CPIN, BBNI, INDF, TBIG, MDKA, AALI.

 

 


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