GBP : Vaccine News
(Fri, 18 July 2020). This week’s data releases did little to move Sterling against a range of major currencies, with the pair currently around one point off Monday’s high print. EU/UK trade talks continue today with little commentary out so far this week although some news about how the negotiations are progressing, or not, may well come out later today.
A report to be released by The Lancet medical journal on Monday may well be next week’s driver for Sterling. An article in the Daily Telegraph suggests that the phase 1 trials of the Oxford vaccine is expected to show that it produces both antibodies and T-cells in a ‘double defence’ against COVID-19. The report quoted a senior source as saying, ‘so far, so good. It’s an important moment. But we still have a long way to go’. If the trial is successful, a vaccine may be available this year, although early 2021 may be more likely.
GBP/USD currently trades between a cluster of moving averages, supported by the 20- and 50-dma and blocked from moving higher by the 200-day moving average. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds a further layer of short-term support above the short- and medium-term moving averages at 1.2517. The pair are unlikely to break out of this week’s trading range – 1.2478 to 1.2666 – unless the US dollar makes a sharp move, one way or another. The greenback remains weak with the US dollar basket coming within a few cents of making a fresh four-month low this week, The greenback is sitting in oversold territory and may steady going into the weekend.
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