Global Markets Still Waiting for Bull Charge
(Mon 6 Jun 2020). Headlines are screaming about the "insanely expensive" stock market, but is that really accurate? One analyst sees plenty of undervalued stocks in the Dow Jones right now.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures shoot higher, extending last week’s gains. Global equities hit a four-month high after a blistering Asian session overnight. U.S. stocks have plenty of room to run – most are still undervalued, according to one analyst. Investor optimism swept the globe this morning, pushing world stocks to a four-month high. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures piggy-backed on the wave. The index was up 378 points in premarket trading.
There’s plenty of room to run, according to Freddie Lait at Latitude Investment Management. He believes many stocks are still undervalued. They could see billions of dollars inflow as hedge funds catch up.
If you look at US banks, they’re trading incredibly cheap compared to history. Energy stocks, retail stocks we still believe are very cheap in America. Nearly all cyclical stocks, even the highest quality ones… they’re trading at massive discounts.
Can this rally keep pushing higher? Absolutely, says Lait. Mutual funds and hedge funds are still on the sidelines, with cash levels close to 2009 figures. That money will likely come back to stocks and push the market higher.
Dow Futures Rocket After Blistering Asian Session
Chinese stocks just posted the best one-day session in over a year. The CSI 300 climbed 5.6% on Monday, propelling the index to a five-year high. Hong Kong stocks were up 3%. Dow futures surfed the wave overnight, surging 378 points higher. S&P 500 futures were up 1% while Nasdaq Composite futures pushed 1.13% higher. The excitement swept up traders in Europe too as consumer spending bounced back.
Are Stocks Really Undervalued?
I can already hear the bears coming for me as I type. The headlines are screaming about the “insanely expensive” stock market and record-high price-to-earnings ratio. How can stocks possibly be undervalued in this environment? Well, as Freddie Lait explains, you just have to look in the right places. The reason why the markets are expensive is because the tech and the growth stuff is expensive.
Although tech is outrageously expensive, everything else is dirt cheap: banks, energy, retail, cyclicals, travel. And guess how many of these companies make up the Dow Jones? Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Caterpillar, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Boeing, to name just a few.
So yes, there are plenty of undervalued stocks to be found in the Dow Jones. If sidelined cash finds it way into these undervalued areas, the markets can keep going higher, says Lait.
Cash Waiting On The Sidelines To Raise The Dow Jones?
Mutual funds are holding more cash than any time since 2009 – the start of a decade-long bull-run. Hedge fund positioning is historically low on equities. Over the weekend, JP Morgan told clients that ‘elevated cash holdings’ could soon flow into stocks.
As for that ‘irrational exuberance’, the Wall Street Journal pointed to four indicators that suggest the opposite. Investors are actually cautious right now. Quoting Ryan Paylor atThomas J. Herzfeld Advisors Inc, WSJ wrote; Closed-end fund investors ‘are leaning more towards fear than greed.’
Investors Focus On Improving Economic Data
Traders are keeping a watchful eye on Covid-19 data as cases top 11.5 million worldwide. Six states in the U.S. have reversed their lockdown easing strategy, including California and Texas. A further 13 states have paused re-opening efforts. Despite his bullish stance, Freddie Lait said the virus remains the “most concerning” issue holding stocks back.
Investors are largely focusing on positive economic data instead. U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in at 4.8 million last week – higher than expected. Manufacturing, services, and consumer spending data are all moving in the right direction.
GFS ASIA TEAM
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