Gold : Struggles Near Highs

(Tue, 30 Jun 2020). Supportive trendline needs to hold. Thursday’s US nonfarm payrolls the key data of the week



Gold is up over $100/oz. since the June swing-low and a series of higher lows remain in place. The steep uptrend line off the $1,671/oz. low is likely to be tested again and needs to hold if gold is to push back towards the next upside target at $1,794/oz. made in October 2012. Monday’s indecision doji suggests that the recent rally is weakening and trend support, currently around $1,761/oz. may soon be under threat. The support line has held all month but the steepness of this trend was always likely to cause it to be tested, especially with the precious metal at multi-year highs. Below trend, the $1,747/oz. area is likely the next zone of support. A clean break above last week’s $1,779/oz. high will leave the October 2012 peak the likely next target.

This month’s US nonfarm payrolls are released on Thursday – a day earlier than usual – due to a US holiday on Friday. Last month’s US labor report smashed analysts bearish expectations when 2.5 million jobs were added against expectations of 7.5 million jobs being lost. The US unemployment rate fell to 13.3% from a prior 14.7% and expectations of a near-20% reading. The official US BLS report noted however that due to the way the data was interpreted, a ‘miscalculation error’ occurred and the unemployment rate could be about three percentage points higher than reported. This week’s release will be very closely watched for any further ‘errors’ or revisions.




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