GBP : Euro Talk

(Sat, 13 Jun 2020). UK GDP data misses already dire expectations. Brexit talks next Monday may make or break UK sentiment.



The FTSE 100 has lost nearly 8% this week and given back three weeks’ worth of gains as risk markets around the globe turned sour.Fears that the US may see a second round of the COVID-19 virus prompted the Dow Jones to fall by over 1,800 points at one stage on Thursday, dragging global indices lower.

In addition to the global risk-off move, the latest UK GDP figures will also weigh on the UK big board. UK GDP fell by 10.4% in the three months to April and by 20.4% in April alone. According to the ONS deputy national statistician for economic statistics, Jonathon Athow, ‘April’s fall in GDP is the biggest the UK has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost ten times larger than the steepest pre-COVID-19 fall’.


British Pound (GBP) Latest: Record GDP Collapse, GBP/USD Dips

Next week is pivotal for UK assets with UK PM Boris Johnson meeting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday in attempt to break the current EU/UK trade impasse, while UK jobs data on Tuesday and the Bank of England MPC meeting on Thursday will also drive price action.

The FTSE is now making a small bounce-back off the 50-day moving average (blue line on chart) situated just below the 6,000 level. This indicator held yesterday and also provided an additional spring for the index on May 14. If today’s rebound proves to be more than a dead cat bounce, an area of resistance between 6,202 (20-dma) and 6,233 (50% Fib retracement) should stem further upside in the short-term. Support of the 50-dma before the 38.2% Fib retracement at 5,889.





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