USD : ASEAN Currency Basket
(Thu, 11 Jun 2020). US Dollar facing next key support tests against ASEAN peers. USD/SGD eyeing lows from March, USD/PHP may turn higher. USD/MYR testing October 2017 high, will USD/IDR bounce?
As anticipated, the US Dollar extended its selloff against some of its ASEAN counterparts such as the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit and Indonesian Rupiah.
This followed my ASEAN-based US Dollar index confirming a breakout under rising support from the beginning of this year. Now it is fast approaching key support from early February and March (4.0575 – 4.0670). Will weakness in the USD persist in the coming days?
ASEAN-BASED US DOLLAR INDEX – DAILY CHART
SINGAPORE DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The Singapore Dollar is fast approaching the next key support barrier in its appreciation against the US Dollar. USD/SGD faces March lows (1.3760 – 1.3778) after taking out the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3902. If the former holds and results in a bounce, the latter could be tested as new resistance. Otherwise, descending through support could set SGD on course towards its most expensive price since the turn of 2020.
PHILIPPINE PESO TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The US Dollar could turn higher against the Philippine Peso. USD/PHP left behind a Morning Star bullish candlestick pattern. Further upside confirmation could precede a push higher towards lows from August and November 2017 which may stand in the way as new resistance (50.12 – 50.19). Otherwise, downside resumption may pave the way for a test of the 2018 low at 49.73. Beyond the latter sits the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 49.41.
MALAYSIAN RINGGIT TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The Malaysian Ringgit has struggled to make meaningful gains against the US Dollar since the middle of last week. This is despite USD/MYR confirming a breakout under rising support from January – blue line. Prices seem to be floating just above the October 2017 high at 4.2425. Taking this barrier out could extend declines in USD/MYR towards the March low at 4.1600. Otherwise, a bounce places the focus on 4.2930 – 4.3030.
INDONESIAN RUPIAH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The US Dollar has climbed against the Indonesian Rupiah just above the 13848 – 13895 inflection range. On the whole, USD/IDR remains in a downtrend since prices topped in April. A push above immediate resistance at 14130 could set the stage for further gains in the currency pair. However, do keep in mind the Bank of Indonesia is actively intervening to uphold stability in the IDR. The central bank sees room for further appreciation.
GFS ASIA TEAM
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