Oil & Gold : Struggling

(Wed, 27 May 2020). Crude oil prices struggle to build higher despite risk-on backdrop. Gold prices look poised to test below $1700/oz as breakout fizzles. US-China tensions, EU Commission recovery fund pitch in focus. Crude oil prices remain in stasis. The WTI benchmark has idled near the $34/bbl figure for the better part of a week. Traders are weighing improving risk appetite – celebrating the Fed’s success in easing credit market stress as well as easing coronavirus lockdowns around the world – with the onset of a deep recession that undermines demand.

The chipper mood buoyed Treasury bond yields as capital poured out of the safety of government debt, weighing on gold. This often happens when a rising baseline for market rates of return highlights gold’s non-interest-bearing character. Pressure was offset by US Dollar weakness early in the trading day but that resilience soon gave way.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet offering on the economic data docket is likely to keep broader sentiment trends in control. Traders will weigh the risk-off implications of escalating US-China tensions against hopes for a rebound in economic activity as economies cautiously reopen. The EU Commission will unveil is regional recovery fund. How markets greet its size and composition may likewise color the risk landscape.



Crude oil prices continue to mark time above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 32.81. Upward resumption from here targets resistance in the 40.56-42.40 area, with a break above that clearing the way for a retest of former support near the $50/bbl figure. A turn lower that puts prices back under the 38.2% Fib at 25.07 seems like a prerequisite for neutralizing the near-term bullish bias.



Gold prices slipped past support at 1715.15, suggesting the bullish implications of a recently completed Symmetrical Triangle pattern are unraveling. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for topping. From here, a daily close below 1679.81 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1645.40. The May swing top at 1765.30 continues to mark defining resistance.




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