KEY Analysis

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  • FX Market
  • 5 months ago
  • 104

GBP After reports that negotiators had concluded a draft Withdrawal Agreement last week came the news that Theresa May was unable to offer political sign-off on the draft. Accounts vary, but it looks like the EU is willing to accept the UK's proposal of a UK-wide customs union backstop, but only as a secondary backstop to the originally-proposed Irish backstop. The UK opposes this, though we note that it could be a compromise that gives the EU coverage to agree to a time limit in the original backstop. Progress at this week's meeting remains possible, but only at the political level. November's EU leaders meeting remains an open question, but both sides acknowledge that the deadline for a deal is still months away--Dec or possibly even Feb.
CAD The Bank of Canada's Autumn Business Outlook Survey painted an upbeat picture, with a pickup in future sales, investment intentions, and persistent capacity pressures. The report also revealed near-record labour shortages and showed the majority of firms surveyed expect inflation to run above 2% in the next two years. Looking past the BOS, existing home sales were slightly weaker than expected in September with their first decline in five months. Sales activity was down 0.4% at the national level, led by a 1.5% decline in Vancouver.
USD Retail sales surprised to the downside in September with a muted 0.1% increase (TD: 0.9%, market: 0.6%). Motor vehicles made a sizeable contribution on a 0.8% gain but gasoline sales were a drag, which could be partly explained by hurricane effects. Core retail sales were less downbeat with the control group posting a 0.5% increase (TD: 0.5%, market: 0.4%)."

Source : TDS